Pitchforking your way to profits December 21st, 2009 Daily Market Update


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Return to Top of Page 15 November Earlier I posted a video showing vehicles taking over the sidewalk when traffic was stopped in the streets. Here is a video showing a car facing literally a different problem. The traffic he was dodging wasn't stopped. He just happened to be going the wrong direction on the wrong side of the street. Return to Top of Page 7 November When it comes to traffic in Cambodia, there are no rules. Oh, there may be a few on the books, but they are not enforced. There is no expectation of or desire for order in the interaction between vehicles and humans.

It really has to be seen to be believed. One example is the way sidewalks are used. Normally they are used for parking and business. The city is designed without any parking space and if there is an empty square meter of sidewalk, someone will take it over and set up some kind of stall selling food or other goods. And if traffic is moving too slow for people, the sidewalks become roads. In this video This was taken in the morning while my motorcycle taxi was waiting in traffic for a red light and those on the sidewalk were not.

Please let me know if you would find video interesting and useful. This is a morning open-air wholesale market for fruits and vegetables. The picture was taken at 6: In Cambodian culture, very little trash is collected in garbage cans or rubbish bins. The practice is to throw everything on the ground and then come back and sweep it up. A market like this generates literally tons of trash within a few hours. Those responsible for the market think nothing of driving a large frontloader through the crowds to scrape up the trash from the pavement. Click here to see photos about driving in the wrong lane in Cambodia.

MUCH more to follow! Click here to see this first set of photos about driving practices in Cambodia. Sunday on the way back from mass, my motorcycle taxi started making a grinding noise and we pulled over. Something was obviously wrong with the chain but there was a little sidewalk repair shop fifteen feet ahead so we pushed the bike over there, the young man who was repairing another bike dropped that project, came over with his tools, took off the chain guard, and found a boogey gear that had sheared a pin or its fastener and was bouncing around on top of the chain.

He put a new fastener on and in literally four to five minutes, we were on our way. Here the repairman and his young assistant take off the chain guard. We broke down on the other side of this cart selling roasted plantains and just had to push the cc motorbike to this side of the cart. If oil companies think of themselves as energy companies, then any possible investment in that area could make sense. However, what has changed since some of the oil companies got involved with wind and solar is that Silicon Valley is pushing for a different energy model altogether, whereby big energy companies and centralized energy generation and distribution become less important than distributed generation, utilizing Silicon Valley business models.

If the externalities of coal are taxed appropriately, wind and solar make sense in many places, as natural gas depletes or if natural gas is exported from the US, then natural gas prices will rise and wind and solar will be more comperitive in the US as well.

I think we should use all alternatives to fossil fuels, solar is pretty expensive at present relative to wind, we should maximize geothermal and hydro where they are available if environmental destruction does not result , use biofuels where they are cost effective and do not create more carbon emissions by destroying rain forests as in some parts of Asia , and use solar in areas where insolation is high. If the costs of solar continue on there present path it will not be long before solar will make more sense over more of the planet.

Some invest in biofuels. I think geothermal makes sense because it involves wells and topside facilities. Euan Mears has just posted a truly excellent overview article about geothermal on his own blog called Energy Matters. Much discourse borders on the ignorant, wreckless, irresponsible and unconscionable, but then practically our entire way-of-life is built on those. The cart before the horse.

It would be hard to build a car that gets that much mileage without making it an Electric Hybrid. A Plug-In option is not that hard to add from there, e. Necessity is the mother of invention and fifty mile plus per gallon ice powered cars are not out of reach. Building them however is going to cost more due to the high prices of lightweight materials and more sophisticated engines and drive trains.

I foresee hybrids, plug in hybrids, and pure electrics gaining market share far faster than expected by mainstream pundits and conventional thinkers but I am not willing to go so far as to predict a total electric car takeover and the complete demise of the conventional car and light truck within the next couple of decades. The rules are going to change. Speed limits will be lowered, smart roads are in the offing, car sharing and car pooling are growing by leaps and bounds but from a very low starting point.

Snap a pic of him or her and his car with your smart phone and send it to your friend or a web site set up especially for the purpose. Check in along the way using the dead man switch failsafe technique. Drivers who want to share rides can get documentation prepared proving they are good citizens. Sharing rides is going to get to be easier and easier as time passes. Cars will be substantially downsized as fuel supply problems grow.

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When diesel hits ten or fifteen bucks somebody will start selling them. VW has already put an experimental model on the road that got over two hundred mpg equivalent. We will see laws passed that in effect MANDATE the production and sale of such cars and other laws passed that will add substantially to the price of gasoline and diesel fuel thereby forcing the owners of older larger cars and trucks to drive them as little as possible and also resulting in the scrapping of such older cars and trucks well before they are actually worn out.

Those of us who believe we will never raise the gasoline tax in this country are failing to take into account the effect the rise of the younger generations have on the culture. We are morphing into a western European type culture fast as the old farts such as yours truly die off. We old farts will be gone in two decades and losing importance fast as far as elections are concerned in another decade. Young people are no longer fascinated by cars as they once were and cars are no longer necessary status symbols for young men looking for women etc.

The cost of owning a car is prohibitive in relation to the cost of car sharing or taking mass transit and neighborhood biking in the community of the future. People who are marginally hard up are already having a very hard time affording a car to get to work. This is not to say the average suburbanite is going to give up his suburban home with garage, back yard ,garden spot ,privacy, shade trees ,etc for a non existent comparably desirable place to live down town. He will probably keep his Audi since it will be worth very little if he sells it to use for the occasional family trip or outing.

Transit is never going to amount to much in the suburbs compared to super cheap running super small sized cars. Just getting to a train station and from the destination station to the final destination -door to door — for a fairly short trip — anything under say four hundred miles — can take hours plus the train riding time. Such a trip can usually be accomplished faster and for a damned long time to come , CHEAPER, by driving directly, unless both doors are near the train stations. Cabs and train tickets are NOT cheap compared to driving an existing car.

A twenty five year old car with only fifty thousand miles on the odometer is just about as reliable as a brand new car if it has been properly maintained. So the conventional car — old but nice — will remain in most suburban driveways as electrics take over the mass market.

And if we are lucky enough that business as usual lasts another twenty years, there will be plenty of pure electric cars capable of making door to door trips of five hundred miles with no more than one or two stops to recharge at a fast charger. Most restaurants near a major highway interchange will have a fast charger by then to entice customers into the restaurant.

If you spend enough on lunch your charge will be complimentary. Otherwise they will just add it to your check. As you probably know, some restaurants and some stores already have fast chargers, to lure people to come inside while using the chargers. Oil was down over a dollar in Asia last night as Greece lifted the dollar. There are 2 days until the 1st of month event. Remember, it is the average of price on 1st of months that determine underground collateral valuation for lending for completions.

Wrapping from end of last ronpost. July 1 is an important day, as is the 1st of month of all months. One of the primary constituents of petroleum is hexane C6H The amount of energy released when burned is You multiply that value by the mass of 1 mole of petroleum. Multiply that value by how much mass per liter of petroleum there is. Multiply the final value by how many liters there are in 1 barrel of petroleum and you receive the approximate value of 6. BP already does this for total liquids consumption, so we could simply take the tonnes of oil consumption and multiply by 7.

Using BP data we get the chart below. Any chance you could plot this please? As we move away from fossil fuels to more solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, tidal, wave, and nuclear energy and as population peaks and declines we might continue to see a small rise in energy use per capita. At some point years from now we could see World income levels in real terms at similar levels on a per capita basis as current average European real income levels.

Under this very optimistic scenario, where World population levels have fallen to 1 to 2 billion and net carbon emissions are close to zero energy per capita may peak and the economy might reach a steady state no growth. This does not mean there will not be many bumps in the road between here and there, but it is the road humans should aim for. Of course, many industrial processes are at or approaching their thermodynamic limits, which limits the potential for future gains.

I agree exergy would be nice to know, but the devil is in the details, energy is the best data I have and it is not really great, but any exergy numbers we could come up with would be quite speculative IMO. I agree we will approach thermodynamic limits at some point, but moving to less thermal production of electricity and more use of electric motors overall will reduce thermal losses. We can do much better in transport by moving to electric rail as much as possible and more public transportation would help as well in the US.

Increased energy costs will drive efficiency improvements, but as always there are physical limits to efficiency improvements. Also, the peak in ND production last summer-fall coincides with the peak for the economy, including employment. In fact, the month avg. In order for the 4-qtr.

The incipient bust in the shale and energy-related transport sectors is dragging down goods orders, production, and employment since Q4 The economy is weaker than the headlines indicate. Auto sales are still strong but largely because of sub-prime auto loans. Ex sub-prime loans, and sales would be M vs. There really is not very good data on EROEI, there are a lot of problems with such a measure, where should the boundry be drawn? Oil consumption per capita has been pretty flat since at around 4.

Dennis, I have read about it f. Because the energy invested comes from much more than oil products. To the rest of us, who remain concerned about the next generations, the only thing that matters re energy is. The focus is to what extent can a rising API degree world, bespeaking less and less energy out of the ground, push trucks around that feed you. According to your government, a BOE as equal to 5. But surely you know this Watcher; are you playing silly games again? Which you know perfectly well. Meanwhile, I have a question for you.

Why do you Yanks insist on using obsolete measuring systems: You could just as well measure oil in buckets or how about pint glasses. So what would a barrel of crude weigh that has the BOE energy, my guess it is 7. Very heavy oil with an API gravity of 10 would give 6. How many barrels of crude oil in one MT? This is assuming that 0.

Since as you said, the grade of the oil may make a difference. If you know the exact specific gravity of the oil in question, you will get more accurate results. I think this as a can of worms that Watcher has opened, the contrary character that he is. A lot of people just assume one barrel of oil is has the same amount of energy content as 6, cubic feet of natural gas and leave it at that: Pretty pathetic I admit. For most purposes, your 7. Just what is the point of determining an accurate BTU content for oils or for that matter for fossil fuels in general.

What is it going to tell you? The end uses are so variable and have such efficiency variation and use variation, what does the BTU value have to do with it? Sure quality varies, but is that significant to how well civilization actually works.? In many cases humans are attempting to accomplish useful tasks which usually entail work force applied over a distance in physics. In a non-magical world energy is expended in the process of doing work, I will not go into the physics and chemistry of this, but typically this is non-controversial for scientists.

Whatever the efficiency of any thermodynamic process, a certain amount of energy will be needed to accomplish a task. So if we want to move food from the farm to the city in a truck, a barrel of ethanol will not get the truck as far down the road as a barrel of diesel fuel. To Dennis Coyne in response to his 8: First Dennis you answered the wrong question. I asked what is the point of determining an accurate BTU value when the BTU value has little to do with what actually happens out at the end use and in society.

An 11 percent change in BTU is insignificant to society. Since you like simplistic examples I will give you a low case one. Since the energy is supposedly less per volume, that car is even better than I thought. They are safer too. TV, electronics, microwave ovens, fiber optics, lasers, medical devices, and on and on. All better, more efficient and much more capable.

I would still be consulting a magic eight ball, posting letters in the mail, and dialing a phone. Oh, yes I would also still have an antenna on my roof and we would be unable to breath the air or drink the water by now. Society is now providing other transport means that are much more efficient and make any minor BTU problems irrelevant. And feel free to use physics and chemistry if you can, I started out in astrophysics and then spent decades working in chemistry. So cut the patronizing crap. BTW, even a moron would stop to get more fuel rather than try to carry the food 35 miles your example.

Also, EtOH is not a fossil fuel. The exact BTUs is for the U. But it seems our society is so perverse, that instead of taxing, we subsidize depleting fossil fuels. I agree that efficiency matters. Do you think there is no limit to how efficient an internal combustion engine can become? The electronics and safety equipment are beside the point.

I suppose you could claim that if the liquid fuel has half the energy will just make our engines 2 times more efficient, and claim that we have just as much energy as we did before because the volume of liquid remains the same and we can go just as far as we did before. Your fanciful graphs and projections never account for any physical constraints at all. And you add a wink because we all know how silly it would be to disregard the laws of physics!

Dennis, efficiency was the smallest change I was talking about. Take a look at the whole system not just one small portion. But even so, Jay Leno asked some young people what kind of mpg their car got. The Dutch solar car gets infinite mpg. So even so primitive and minor a change as efficiency can make huge differences.

But, to reiterate, look at all the changes in society that have occurred with very little change in fuel per capita. Our abilities are orders of magnitude further along now. I agree we have made progress. I also agree that a solar car would be a wonderful thing and some day they might be widely available for driving on a sunny day.

Do you agree there are thermodynamic and mechanical limits to how efficient we can make an automobile powered by an internal combustion engine? If not, there is no point of discussing further.

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I agree much progress has been made, I do not agree that there are no limits to how much more progress can be made. I also understand that better fuel efficiency can be attained using hybrid electic technology and have owned a hybrid since and now have 3, one for a teenager. Fifty miles per gallon is attainable in a Prius, maybe 60 if you stay off the highway and drive under 45 MPH most of the time.

If the energy in the fuel is lower as in an E10 blend , you cannot go as far on a tank of gas in any given car. I think that matters if you want to travel from point a to b. The decimal inch works just fine for detailed work using micrometers etc. And the inch denominated tape is infinitely easier to read when actually working by hand. When I was younger I could see halves quarters eighths sixteenths thirty secondths sixty fourths easily. Thirty secondths are hard now but the different height of the markings still keeps me seeing easily down to that level. The millimeter is just too damned big for hand work and a tenth of a millimeter is too damned small.

It is too easy to miscount the small millimeter marks all the same height on a metric tape. So when you try to use metric denominated plywood or drywall you have to cut some off of every sheet. Trying to use metric measures on any old USA infrastructure is a complete and total pain in the ass. So far I have not encountered metric lumber personally.

But I expect each and every piece would have to be bought over sized and trimmed to work on existing American houses and buildings. Beyond that going metric means buying new tools in a lot of cases. I have to own twice as many wrenches as I used to and find just about every domestic machine has mixed fasteners. Some guys I know who do drywall work just quit when their companies went to doing an occasional job using metric. The sheets are so much bigger and heavier they decided it was no longer worth it lugging them around. If all liquids were crude 7.

I believe what you were saying was that mass would get us pretty close to the energy content of liquid petroleum. How much do you think the average barrel of crude oil weighs. One source on the internet suggests it should be 7. BP uses different conversion rates for each country. Furthermore, these rates are not constant, and change from one year to another, reflecting changes in crude mix. Using one conversion rate for global production would be misleading. BP reports crude in millions of tonnes, they also say that if you want to convert a metric tonne of crude to barrels you multiply by 7.

If the mass of oil is roughly equivalent to its energy content, then using 7. Now we multiply by 7. Dennis, BP indeed has 7. But if you use their oil production or consumption numbers from the Statistical Review, you should take into account that these numbers include NGLs with conversion ratio of more than 10 barrels per ton. Hence there are less barrels in a ton of Venezuelan crude than in a ton of US crude. The idea is pretty simple.

I realize that the API gravity is variable. The point is that if the mass of the petroleum liquid is roughly proportional to its energy content and if the average World barrel of crude oil has a density which is equivalent to 7. Maybe better drawing the line in the first graph in color red? Because in the other graph it is the red one. We take the energy content of crude oil quite often.

The first time I had it done was in , to submit Information to a foreign ministry on the tax revenue per energy unit they were collecting. All large crude oil streams and oil discoveries are submitted for full assays, which include a simulated refinery product slate. Are you trying to set a conversion from barrels to tons? This is another mechanism for trucks delivering less food. Thanks for posting this link Jeff. This is a very good article. This is just more confirmation that Russia has peaked.

We have increasing light ends from tight rocks and increasing heavy ends from extra heavy. Dennis, I tend to agree with you. So you nailed it. Right, so the extra light and the extra heavy are peaking at roughly the same level. We will see a heavier mix coming out of the wells. But some of the extra heavy will be upgraded near the field. I understand there are no price guarantees, and either or both could go up or down in the next 12 months.

That is even accepting as true the cost reduction claims. My assertion is backed up by consensus earnings estimates, which are near zero or negative. Of course, we know GAAP earnings make things look better than they are, whereas cash flow, the really important metric, is comical. Cash flow negative for years on end. Sounds like the dot com bubble. However, for someone to make such a claim given the tremendous amount of financial evidence that is in the open, for all to see, is ridiculous.

Yet it happens over and over again. Thanksgiving was just 7 months ago. Did US oil producers and wall street, during the price crash, make claims as ridiculous as those being made about US shale today? I was around then, but was young and not paying as much attention. Would be interested in hearing from those who recall what was being said around the time of the crash.

I also welcome opinions as to why the BS keeps on being churned out. There were more talking heads willing to take down the dot com bubble than there are US Shale. Unlike most other oil exporting countries, KSA has actually increased budget spending this year, and their fiscal breakeven is higher than in There might be a few worried princes over there, and not just because of the problems in Yemen. Shallow, Nothing makes sense with shale economics and nothing makes sense with economy in general anymore.

Looking at the production forecast from Canada combined with the data from Texas and no, it looks like North America is down by over , bpd in June. Or am I reading the data wrong? I think you are reading it pretty close. North America should be down about that amount from the December high. The government ran their party primaries, i read a few reports of snipers or armed bands shooting at national guardsmen who arrived to provide security at the polling stations. I posted a link in a previous post about increasing theft of oil well and plant equipment. Medicine shortages are very serious.

Somebody seems to be murdering the bodyguards of high level chavistas. This may be spurred by their weapons and fancy gear, which is always stolen. Criminal bands are taking over part of the cities, but the government has the firepower to stop them. The problem Maduro faces is his reliance on these bands to repress the people. The regime uses a layered Brownshirt repression machine, the criminals in these biker gangs are the special forces. They go in to break up protests and murder opposition members as required.

The national guard and the Sebin a secret police agency which includes Cuban agents are the official line of repression. Sebin uses arbitrary arrests, took over a bank building near the central university where they keep a torture center, but they are very targeted, and their numbers are small I know because they copied the Cuban system. I suspect the sheer anarchy is used as a means to keep people scared and depressed. The government is also incredibly incompetent.

If things continue this way there will be a breakdown in December, and at that time we may see a civil war break out. This will be internal to the Chavista ranks, because they are the ones with the weapons. If that continues for a while it may totally break down, and by we could say it will be a failed state.

In which case we can thank Dilma Rouseff, Correa, and other leftist leaders for providing diplomatic cover to one of the most terrible and destructive regimes ever seen. The failure happens if one side fails to win, and nobody takes control of all large cities and keeps a semblance of order. Indeed, over the weekend, there were isolated reports of customers stocking up on staples like rice, spaghetti and tinned milk in some supermarkets, and of motorists queuing for petrol at garages on some of the Greek islands.

On Monday, supermarkets remained well-stocked in Athens, although there were fears that shortages could begin later in the week. Yet even if the banks do reopen as scheduled next Monday, it may take at least another week to clear the massive backlog of transactions. Dunno if I have mentioned this yet, but media stories will get funded by editorial staffs from here on out to horrify everyone about the extreme plight of Greece now that they have dared to try to get out from under the debt. The European Central Bank meanwhile became more deeply committed to stabilizing financial markets.

And believe me, it will be enough. By continuing to allow banks everywhere to use Greek debt as collateral, the ECB also created conditions that supported the trading of Greek debt. By this time the French and German banks had shed their exposure to Greece so that they would no longer be directly harmed if there was a default.

So the stealth rescue of the non-Greek banks was completed with little public attention and the narrative that all the problems were self-inflicted by the Greeks became more pronounced. First, and probably most importantly, countries such as Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland, had all had to undertake similar types of adjustment as in Greece. None of them saw their economies collapse to the extent of Greece, but unemployment especially among the young is also high in all these countries.

Hence, if there are substantial concessions to Greece, then these countries will insist upon getting similar treatment.

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The existing governments in these countries all realize that if electing a radical government in Greece is seen as being rewarded, then voters elsewhere will do the same. The money needed to save Greece could easily be found. In contrast, the money needed to forgive debt in the other countries, especially Italy and Spain, is not affordable for Germany and all the other Northern European countries that would have to foot the bill.

Second, even if there was some way that Greece could be helped without setting a precedent, the officials do not trust the Greeks to carry through with any plans. Tsipras is arguing that the public should reject the plans, but he says that if the public prefers to accept them, then he will go along with that.

The institutions doubt that he could reverse his position and suddenly begin taking steps which he has campaigned against for years. They also are infuriated that he believes his mandate to get better terms supersedes the ones that other elected governments had from their citizens that wanted no more bailouts. The , deal redefined bond maturities that were held by private hands, aka banks. And so their holdings of Greek bonds were slashed — and they were forced to say this was voluntary always remember.

Cyprus banks held a lot of this paper. This is all monumental BS. But failure still reigned supreme and this year he finally got the Germans to say okay. Interesting tidbit as regards logistics. THEY buy their country bonds. He proportions his magic Euros based on economy size, so Germany is supposed to do most of the buying, of their own bonds. But news out recently indicates Germany is dong these buys, but only at the short maturity end. Not what Draghi had in mind. Whatever the banksters want, they usually get. And the top 0.

Germany broke the golden rule of a monetary union: The overall conclusion is that the eurozone and Germany in particular is at war with double entry book-keeping and accounting identities. But, I guess I keep going back to asking, "when will people finally grasp the concept the infinite 'GROWTH' of any kind, including economic, can not and therefore will not be able to continue on a finite planet". The underlying premise of the global economic system is profoundly and fundamentally flawed! Either that, or it is the largest ponzi scheme ever perpetrated!

Have a nice day sir. My Fat Snake Goddess will constrict and swallow your wimpy Thor and put out his little thunder and lightening… It is you who needs to worship at the feet of my snake Goddess… no pun intended! Not really, I typically give religion, in any form, about milliseconds of thought per day , typical rotational period of nicely behaved pulsars.

I am not a fully qualified biologist by any means, as Fred is, nor an engineer. But I AM a sort of Renaissance Man hillbilly and suggest that both of you should take into account the undeniable FACT of religion and spend substantially more time than a millisecond a day thinking about it. Religion is to culture and politics somewhat like the weather is to farming- something that has to be DEALT with. Ignoring it is not an option. It confers fitness on the members of religious groups — short term at least. We gave up the loner life so far back we will never know when. We live and survive as BANDS or tribes these days — super sized of course and now known as nations mostly.

The real religion and god of the world. I think that GDP could continue to grow for quite a while, even as standards of living stagnate or deteriorate. Certainly lots of people seems convinced that standards of living in the USA are on the wane, and yet the GDP has never been higher. Same for real bank lending. What is keeping final sales from contracting currently is booming auto sales, which are benefiting from subprime auto loans, without which auto sales would be M vs. Yes, per capita might remain stagnant, but nominal GDP can certainly continue to grow.

Ask any Chinese person whether they think growth is finished. Short term the situation is very bad in Greece, however long term Greece is much better off than any country in the Western World. My worries are for the rest of Europe and also the US, which have to shoulder more and more debt. Greece is the big winner in this game. In my opinion, most Western governments have wildly over-promised the benefits that they can actually deliver to both employees and to non-employee citizens.

I wonder how most governments and countries would fare if they had to subsist only on tax revenues, without any new debt? I suppose that this would be analogous to shale players having to drill only out of cash flow and cash on hand, without borrowing money. Long term Greece is bad shape, just like the rest of the world. Greece is posed to begin the start of a very long depression, or a civil war. Greece will be the first development nation to begin its long term depression, other will follow as the mountains of debt start tumbling down all over the industrialized world.

Its starts with the weakest nations and works it way up. Greece is not going to recover from this. Much as Greece was worlds first super power under Alexander the great it never regained its economic power in the last years. Once an economic power collapses it never returns to its former power. Greece has little to offer, it has little in exports and few natural resources need to sustain its economy. We can take methane out of the equation because that is not typically reported as a petroleum liquid.

Ethane should not really be included at all because it is not usually used for energy, it is used as a chemical input for plastics and other products primarily although it gets reported as energy in NGL content. And of course gasoline averages API number for what is coming out of the ground is increasing.

That is certainly true. However, here is an anecdote from personal experience. In any case I hardly noticed any difference in performance or fuel efficiency in that particular car. A high compression ratio is desirable because it allows an engine to extract more mechanical energy from a given mass of air-fuel mixture due to its higher thermal efficiency.

This occurs because internal combustion engines are heat engines, and higher efficiency is created because higher compression ratios permit the same combustion temperature to be reached with less fuel, while giving a longer expansion cycle, creating more mechanical power output and lowering the exhaust temperature. I have read that engines designed to run primarily on ethanol can be almost as efficient as a gasoline engine due to potentially having a much higher compression ratio. But if the engine is a duel fuel engine and is to be run on gasoline part of the time I have a hard time seeing how it can have a diesel like compression ratio..

Variable compression is pretty exotic and I have never even seen a variable compression engine personally. So the dual fuel E85 capable engines sold in the USA are just not going to get good per gallon fuel economy running on E The two or three people I have talked to personally about E85 tell me they got miserable per gallon economy on E85 and after trying a couple of tanks went back to ordinary E Nobody sells E85 locally so I have only the experience to go on of a couple of folks who have moved here from where it IS sold.

So although interesting, it is not really much of a global solution, it might work in Brazil, but not anywhere else for reducing overall petroleum consumption. I think ethanol from sugar cane can be used in Cuba, Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and in African countries. For oil prices, the phase change was caused mostly by the growth of a new source of supply from unconventional, expensive oil.

Expensive oil made sense only because of the longest period ever of high oil prices in real dollars from late until mid Monetary policies following the Collapse produced the longest period of sustained low interest rates in recent history. As a result, capital flowed into the development and over-production of marginally profitable unconventional oil because of high coupon yields compared with other investments. You have to have it. They are subsidizing oil production, having the govt augment the price to get the spice to flow.

The industry has to care about the dollars, but when the time comes that people are starving in cities, no one will care about the dollars. The Fed will print dollars to make it happen, or if the Fed has been burned and the members of the FOMC pitchforked, then guns will be held to oil driller heads and they will be forced to work. There is a path to be walked on that trip. These are the signposts along the way. Since the crash of , the whole system has become very fragile.

At this stage, another market crash and prolonged credit freeze could take us straight to starving cities in a matter of weeks see the Korowicz paper. No path to be walked in that case, just a free fall descent off a cliff, Wile E. Weaker economy will demand less oil, so you will have to subsidy oil companies even more. Whole goal of the economy is to create ever higher demand for resources. It peaked in April at thousand. Is that the case? While there are some clearly material changes transformations: In fact, I expect that this data will be revised down, as it was the case with the major revision down of January-March Changes from previous month, mostly for Texas.

It also included estimates for April and May. MER estimate for May hence looks highly unreliable. They were up only 9, bpd in April on very questionable numbers from Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. So right now they are 9,, bpd in April. North Dakota is the first important oil producing state to show a declining trend.

Most other will likely follow in the second half of the year. Interestingly, in relative terms, the fastest growing oil producing state in recent months was New Mexico: This likely confirms that the Permian is now the only growing tight oil play in the US. The problem that I see is that the EIA seems to base their estimates only on the latest RRC data and the previous RRC data published in the month before which is what I was doing myself last year ; instead, now I base my corrections factors on the whole set of vintage RRC datasets at my disposal, which starts in January , making the corrected data much less volatile.

They seem to be about 35, bpd too high. Despite a recent one-time revision in oil production data for the GoM, I think the EIA numbers for this region are generally reliable. Increasing production in the Gulf is due to several new projects coming onstream. However this growth will be relatively short-lived.

Apr 23, http: In , production from the GOM totaled 1. The major reason for the increase in production is due to several high-profile discoveries finally coming online, Mr Shattuck said. In addition to those projects, Lucius, situated in the Keathley Canyon area, also came on stream earlier this year. In , another seven fields are anticipated to begin producing, including Heidelberg and Tahiti 2 in the Green Canyon, and Marmalard, Dantzler and Gunflint in the Mississippi Canyon.

The redevelopment of the Mars and Na Kika fields will contribute to a further increase in production, according to EIA data. However, although GOM production is expected to increase throughout and , Mr Shattuck said, it will temporarily plateau at 1. By , production is expected to decline to an estimated 1.

While 15 developments will have come online between , only eight are expected to come online between In addition, by the end of the decade, large fields such as Mad Dog will have been producing for years and should begin to see production levels decline. However, around , production is expected to rebound when new discoveries such as Anchor, Gila and Guadalupe begin producing.

I never expected Texas and other states to deviate so much from North Dakota. Why would ND be so much different from the rest of shale. I presume conventional did not increase much, and GOM did not either over that time. Yeah, I dropped a zero there. He accuses the EIA of cooking the books on their production estimates to put a lid on oil prices. I do not know Mr. I know Mike has referenced some of his columns, and oil price. I believe May should now be available. I have to think the EIA has access to this information, and therefore there is no good reason for these massive revisions.

The problem, of course, is I am biased. Also, I have no hard data to go on. I freely admit this and try to always keep this in mind. My oil investment went from making too much money to too little in a real hurry. There are production increases that make no sense to me given the crash in oil prices and the poor oil economics in these states due to high lifting costs OPEX. Look at the following November, v. April, , in thousands:. Florida to Pennsylvania to West Virginia 1, to 1, Illinois to Ohio 1, to 2, Utah 3, to 3, Wyoming 6, to 7, I do realize that EIA shows other small states down, so I am cherry picking.

Some of the other small states EIA does have down, but very little. All of these states have generally high operating costs, and I think drilling and completion activity in these states pretty well shut down last fall. I would also not be surprised if much production has been shut in. Oklahoma is home to a ton of stripper wells, many of which have been underwater economically for over 6 months. Given the hyped horizontal plays are primarily gas, I question OK increase. Another example that makes no sense to me is Illinois.

Yet Indiana and Kentucky are down. All three have very high OPEX. I realize none of the small states move the needle on US production. However, I find it strange that we have increases when drilling activity in these states stopped almost completely. For example, Baker Hughes has reported rigs running in Illinois during the first half of the year, and I do not think there are any high volume un conventional wells there. I am definitely not a conspiracy theory person. That is why I dig into the finances.

I read the SEC reports. Investor presentations, which hype the best wells, and metrics which leave out costs, do not. I think it may be unavoidable that the EIA uses models for some of the states until the complete data is available. I think the EIA estimates are way too high right now but I am not ready to say it is deliberate. They do tend to extrapolate too much. I would watch the Gulf of Mexico deep water. Lots of projects were bottled up by the Macondo freeze, and quite a few are coming on with new wells. This could offset natural decline for say another 12 months.

Deep water wells in pre-Miocene rocks are a crapshoot. The Permian is just ramping up their horizontal drilling and fracking and may be the source of growth in Texas output. The well count has come down a lot in the Permian, but a lot of that has been vertical rigs which have fallen by a factor of 4, the horizontal rigs have been cut in half, but it still may be enough to result in growth as they are just getting started in some of the LTO plays. The Permian still has a bit of activity, but not near what it was this time last year.

I work mostly conventional fields, and you are right that drilling in them has basically stopped. There still are horizontal rigs running, but at a much reduced rate. The slow er decline of the conventional portion of the Permian, mixed with a slower ramp-up than other unconventional plays, is what is keeping the Permian from declining.

That is my opinion at least. It will probably start declining soon, since the few horizontal rigs running cant keep production flat forever. That should mean that a lot of acreage terms expire, so on the other side of the bust some good deals could be made on getting some locations to drill. Is there any evidence that your current method of estimating may be biased low for the most recent 3 months of the estimate?

Hi Dennis, to reply to your question I will go in some details: I then use this set of correcting factors together with those computed with past vintage data to compute the average correcting factors over all vintage data-sets. I post the dynamics of these correcting factors from Jan up to April in three plots below: As you can see these correcting factors are stationary over time, so that I can use the sample mean as a consistent estimate of the population mean: However, over time they show some outliers: What can we conclude from all of this?

I am fairly confident that my estimated data up to February are consistent and close to the true values. For March and April they may somewhat underestimate the true data because of this positive outlier. Why there was such a bump in March and April? I read somewhere that in the last months the revision of old data at RRC has improved, due to faster digitalization of data, etc.


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Anyway, I expect that the correction factors to come back to the mean as it was the case after the major revision down which took place with the data published in December If you give me your email, I will send you the whole latest dataset. It is my first initial, last name followed by 78 with no spaces all lowercase at gee male dot com. Trying to avoid putting the actual address up. This is unknown for any of the most recent 24 months. I find it hard to interpret your charts. So you would plot you estimate from Jan , Feb , March , and April where the month is the latest data point of your average estimate or your best guess.

Another way to do this would be to tell us the estimate for Jan for the last 4 months to see how that has changed over time, but it would be more interesting to see Jan, Feb, March and April However, I really caution you to consider this evidence of an upward trend or of underestimation , since this is currently only a phenomenon which really took place in the last month: The other thing I wonder about is that the output is increasing over time so it seems you would want to use percentages rather than the absolute difference if you are using the entire database.

It looks like Feb and march were the exception where the estimate did not increase , For Jan to Feb and March to April the estimate did increase. Dennis it is better to consider the dynamics of the single correcting factors over a large period. Really 4 months are too few to say anything, considering that the correcting factors did not change significantly in and up to march , see my 3 plots above.

I will have a post and charts tomorrow. Off Topic — Ron, you are probably right that a collapse is coming, but not primarily for your reasons. I am 74, and to my knowledge, I have never bought anything made in Greece. They want the world to visit. Come for the climate. They will feed you. They will house you in a 4-star hotel. And you can hire a guide to look at the RUBLE and take pictures of the fallen down buildings that their ancestors built years ago. Have a nice day. Almost the same thing. The US passed tax laws that favored it for US companies. In my opinion, it cannot end well.

What would the people who built the pyramids think of that? We are sinking so low that it is just unbelievable. We are there IMO. Divide that by the US population and then look at the net worth of the majority of the US population. What I read online indicates per capita US debt is higher here than in Greece. But many other countries are too, of the statistics are correct that I am reading. Principle balance will never be paid. Not even part of it.

Private debt is where economic collapse will happen due to insufficient fuel. Nothing any of or all the central banks can do about it. All we are seeing now is the can getting kicked a few last times. Then we reach the end of the road. Maybe your mortgage is different from mine, I see the principal getting smaller each month and as far as I can tell the debt is being paid back slowly over time.

One thing about private debt estimates is that much of it is not really debt it is credit available. I have a lot of credit available on various credit cards, but I never pay a dime in credit card interest balance paid in full every month. The consumer debt numbers are pulled from the credit agencies in the US at least and for a consumer the numbers for credit cards are based on the highly monthly balance or the total credit limit on the credit card. As more and more people charge most of their transactions to credit cards and get 1 to 1. My mortgage works just like yours, But the Federal Government debt or mortgage does not.

So anything spent over tax receipts gets borrowed. They issue new bonds to cover the old bonds as they mature. In other words they issue new debt to cover the old debt. Not one dime or penny ever goes towards the principle balance. Private debt includes mortgages, auto loans, school loans, credit cards, all business loans by small an large companies alike.

Anything thats debt and not on the balance sheet of Federal Government. The debt held privately is multiples of what the Federal government debt is. If you take into account every country that has a central bank and fiat money and fractional reserve banking all work this way. Private debt is going to implode everywhere there is a fuel shortage. This is the debt that central banks can never cover or buy all of it. Insufficient fuel will implode all this debt.

When we get to the other side of peakoil and on down the downward slope of it. Debt will no longer be an option of payment for the vast majority of people and businesses alike. Did that happen in the early 80s? You are correct that government debt is just rolled over and never is intended to be repaid, the economy usually grows and makes the percentage of debt smaller, if we are truly concerned we can raise taxes or reduce government spending or a bit of both so that both conservatives and liberals an declare victory.

As fossil fuels peak it will be disruptive, we will have to build more public transport, and other types of electricity generation besides coal and natural gas. Higher fossil fuel prices will make other forms of energy competitive and we will use energy more efficiently as well, economic growth will also slow which will reduce energy demand. The last round of high fuel prices did not make other forms of energy more competitive, it destroyed demand instead.

In order to accomplish what you predict, prices would have to rise and stay high for a prolonged period of time to theoretically allow other forms of energy a chance to scale up. But if oil prices rise again, the effect would just be the same as before, demand destruction. Your invisible hand theory makes no sense. It is an old saw that was just proven definitively wrong by real world experience. Why would it be any different the next time? The actual evidence strongly suggests proves otherwise, and so do the laws of thermodynamics.

Hi Dennis, And what is collateral that underlines that credit? Do majority of people have some oil wells, farms, profitable business that forms collateral for that credit? So that credit is just illusion. Yes maybe people have jobs with income stream but that is not collateral in real sense. That job can be gone in a second. So you only have illusion of credit and wealth. Most student loan borrowers would be unable to borrow the same amounts for any other reason. How many people in the US are able to walk into a bank and borrow money unsecured these days.

Student debt does do one thing many here would appreciate.

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